Ross Fisher was a nat’s whisker away from delivering us a 33/1 winner at last weeks PGA Championship at Wentworth. A final round 64 left the Englishman just one shot adrift of winner Paul Casey but it’s fair to say that Fisher comes here in good form as he looks to defend his European Open title at the London Club in Kent.
That saying, I nearly spat my corn flakes out all over my monitor when seeing that Fisher was priced up 12/1 favourite for this weeks tournament. Not to say he has an excellent chance, both course form and recent form are very much in his favour but there’s a couple of variables this week which lead me to conclude that he’s poor value.
Fisher’s price has since been snapped up and he’s now an 11/1 shot with totesport. He romped to a sven shot victory here last year after a blistering course record 63 in the first round. However, he’s not won on tour since and the expectation of being market leader and defending champion may count against him, especially when you look down the field.
The greens are said to be some of the easiest on tour, there’s no doubting it’s a long track at the London Club but if you’re straight it’s a real birdie fest, as last years results show. Rory McIlroy is second in the betting at 14/1 with totesport but again, it looks a little skinny when you consider that you can back Henrik Stenson at the same price with the firm.
Stenson’s price is a point bigger than last week when he teed off at Wentworth favourite. A poor first round meant he missed the weekend, but a few extra days off to recharge the batteries after winning the TPC three weeks ago won’t have done him any harm and he has the length off the tee with just a three wood to ensure that he’ll stay straight. He’s the kind of streaky putter who could make mincemeat of these greens and he’d be my pick of the market leaders.
There’s no doubting it’s another quality field playing in England this week and we shouldn’t complete our preview without a mention of some of the other main protagonists in the betting. It’s not often for example that Sergio Garcia comes over to the UK these days and after missing a bigger prize at Wentworth last week he once again comes to the London Club with a bid to pick up some more Race to Dubai points.
Garcia is 15/1 but isn’t on his game at the moment. He finished second here last year but he’d already won a TPC at that stage and was having a far better season in general. Robert Karlsson is taking some time to get going after his ultra consistent 2008 season, so won’t be backed at 20/1 this week. Martin Kaymer is showing some form but again at 20/1 seems a little short. I’d be amazed if Angel Cabrera (25/1) graces the winning circle again this season after his Masters heroics and Retief Goosen is seemingly blower more cold than hot.
So, from the batch of those around the 28/1 mark we’ve picked out Alvaro Quiros, himself a 33/1 shot with totesport. Quiros is the longest player on tour and the open nature of the London Club should suit. The Spaniard showed enough last week around the considerably tighter track of Wentworth finishing sixteenth and his big hitting nature will play to his strength this week in Kent.
At a bigger price, Stephen Dodd has been quietly going about his business and finished a season best fourth in the PGA last week. That will pretty much secure his card for the 2010 season after a pretty dreadful run of form for the last two seasons. A straight hitter with a red hot putter on its day and Dodd can cause a surprise at a juicy 66/1, either way, he won’t show too much excitement!
Finally, we’ve picked out Shane Lowry on his professional debut. Ok, so nobody backed him at 500/1 at the Irish Open a fortnight ago and what are the chances of lightning striking twice? Well, he won his first professional event as an amateur so what’s stopping him winning his first pro event as a professional? The young Irishman is 150/1 with totesport this week, compare that to the 50/1 available on Robert Rock who he beat in a play-off that wet afternoon and i reckon there’s some value to be had.
Others that deserve a mention are Lee Westwood, out to 33/1 this week a hell of a big price considering his form of last year would see him head the betting. Graeme McDowell, a 28/1 shot who finished third here last year and shot a 61 in Ireland before retiring hurt. McDowell sprang into life around this time last year so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him there on Sunday afternoon.
For all your golf betting this week visit totesport.