The golfing gods haven’t been very friendly to punters of late with long shot Lucas Glover taking the US Open prize and following in other non fancied winners such as Shane Lowry, Christian Cevaer and Jeppe Huldahl in recent months. So the Race to Dubai arrives in Germany and there’s a fair amount of head scratching as to who will win in the BMW International Open.
Some of those involved in last weeks US Open make the trip to Germany and I’m tempted to put a line through any of those involved in all five days. This then includes two of the top three in the betting with Henrik Stenson and Rory McIlroy both 12/1 shots with German Martin Kaymer.
Both McIlroy and Stenson performed admirably on the fifth day but coming here without the usual preparation time will be a hindrance and although the field is not the most competitive we’ll leave them alone at those prices.
Kaymer is fresher having missed the cut at Bethpage but the German’s not quite been the same force he was twelve months ago when he won this tournament in a play-off. He’ll have the local support of course but the 12/1 looks a little skinny and for that reason he won’t be making my list.
The man he beat in the play-off last year Anders Hansen looks a lot more interesting betting prospect. The Dane is 25/1 with totesport and has arguably had a much better season than Kaymer, which includes a win on tour at the start of 2009 and some very solid weeks in competitive company. He also likes the course, with a fourth place finish in 2007 to go along with his play-off defeat last year.
Another player who missed the cut last week in the States is Luke Donald. Donald plays most of his golf across the water now but finished sixth here when he last played this course three years ago and he should relish this track. Before last week Donald had a couple of very solid top twenty finishes on the PGA Tour, none more so when he powered to a first round lead at the Memorial with a 64. At 18/1 I think he represents more value than the likes of Kaymer and those who played all five days last weekend.
Further down the betting another Dane has solid claims and at 25/1 Soren Kjeldsen represents some decent value. Kjeldsen has gone from strength to strength since winning at Valderrama at the end of last season and has already added the Open de Andalucia title to his name earlier this season, tipped up on this site I may add! After picking up an injury Kjeldsen comes here off a four week break so will be fresh. Kjeldsen also has good course form having finished fourth here in 2005, with the Dane also finishing in the top fifteen last term.
Continuing the Scandanaivain theme Martin Erlandsson could be another unfashionable winner at a big price. The Swede is a 125/1 shot with totesport and with two top six finishes in Munich in his last three visits he might be worth a small stake each-way bet, despite his very poor recent form.
Finally, another player with good course form is Robert Jan-Derksen, a 50/1 chance with totesport. The golfer from the Netherlands has had a few weeks off but finished 8th and 6th in two of his three previous visits to this course and is also a two-time winner on tour.
