Any 20 runner handicap with prize money as generous as this always going to be difficult to solve. However, there are some strong trends which should help.
Firstly, horses older than four can be readily eliminated. Despite being represented by 47 runners in the past 10 years - only one 5-y-o, Vintage Premium, has been successful.
6-y-o’s and older, despite a large representation, have an even worse record with no wins. The 3 and 4-y-o’s are the group to concentrate on.
Experience as might be expected in such a large field is a requirement. The last 10 winners had won 17 handicaps between them prior to their victory here. All the last 10 winners had a rating of 90 or over.
Ezdiyaad, trained by Marcus Tregoning, is one that catches the eye. By the stallion of the moment Galileo, he fits most of the criteria. His last run behind Sugar Ray at Royal Ascot can be ignored where he ran very freely and did not see out the 1m 4f trip.
His two previous wins in handicaps over 1m 2f were pretty convincing. Five winners have come out of the race he won at Newbury on soft ground in April and any rain won’t be a problem.
The Roger Charlton-trained Proponent also ticks many of the boxes. He ran a fine race over 1m 4f at Royal Ascot where he was 3l behind last Saturday’s Old Newton Cup winner Mad Rush. He will be well suited by the step back to 1m 2f but perhaps would not cope with the soft surface as well as the Tregoning colt.
