Totesport Mile Goodwood Friday

August 4th, 2008 | No Comments »

With 150k guaranteed this is an extremely competitive affair. The two we like against the field are the Mark Johnston-trained Laa Rayb and the Luca Cumani-trained Military Cross.

In the Tote International Handicap at Ascot on Saturday over 7f Johnston’s Storm Cat gelding was most impressive. Poorly drawn he was niggled along in the rear until forcing his way through until 2f out when he flew home to win easily with ears pricked.

He will be very well suited by the return to 1m here. He has won 5 of his 15 starts which is pretty good but his Ascot performance off a mark of 104 marked him out as an improved performer.

He was a course winner at this meeting over 7f last year so there are no concerns about his ability to handle the track. Given a reasonable draw (nothing lower than 8 has won in the last 10 years) off a mark of 107 he must have an outstanding chance.

Cumani’s Military Cross is greatly respected. The trainer has targeted this meeting with considerable success (Cumani horses were 1st and 2nd in the 4.40 on Tuesday) and the Cape Cross 5-y-o gelding looks as if he has been campaigned with this race in mind.

Having his first race since November 2007 racing off a mark of 98 and carrying the steadier of 10st he held on well to beat Orchard Supreme 3/4l in a Salisbury handicap on June 25. That should have blown away any cobwebs and now racing off 101 he has to be fancied to go very well.

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King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes Saturday

July 24th, 2008 | No Comments »

The value bet in this weekend’s showpiece is the St Leger winner Lucarno - currently available at 8/1. He is a big stuffy type who has taken plenty of time to get fit. His last run at Newmarket over 1m 4f on July 10 was a huge step up on his previous run at Saint-Cloud behind Youmzain.

At Newmarket Lucarno giving Papal Bull 5lbs made all and went clear over 1f out to score impressively by 1.25l.

On a line through Papal Bull who was 2l behind Youmzain at level weights in the Coronation Stakes Lucarno should finish in front of Youmzain.

The Aidan O’Brien trained Duke Of Marmalade looked a world beater when trotting up by 4l from the subsequent Eclipse second Phoenix Tower at Royal Ascot but that was over 1m 2f.

He has never run over 1m 4f and being by Danehill out a King Mambo mare his pedigree does not shout stamina. An interesting King George stat is that 21 of the 22 winners of the race have reached the first four in a Group 1 over 1m 4f emphasising the stamina requirements of the race.

Youmzain a thoroughly genuine animal ran a great race at Saint-Cloud when reversing Coronation placings with Duke Of Marmalade’s stable companion Soldier Of Fortune.

He was well suited by coming off a very strong pace that day. Saturday’s race is likely to be run at a steadier rate. The very progressive Lucarno looks the one to be on.

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Totesport International Stakes 7f Handicap Ascot Saturday

July 24th, 2008 | No Comments »

With 150k GBP prize money guaranteed this looks a very competitive affair. Barry Hills has the best record with one winner and three placed from six runners.

Both his entries Zaahid and Giganticus must be considered. The former disappointed in the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket last time behind Little White Lie, but landed the Victoria Cup over course and distance in the spring.

Giganticus who was fourth in this race last year ran a promising race at Newmarket finishing 5th - 2l behind Little White Lie. He is very well suited by fast ground and may be Hills’s best chance.

The Willie Haggas trained King’s Apostle ran a great race in the Wokingham at Ascot staying on strongly over the 6f for 3rd place beaten half a length.

He was running on with great resolution at Ascot and it looks like 7f may be the 4-y-o´s optimum trip.

Another to consider is the Mark Johnston-trained Lovelace. The stable has a good record in the race with two placed from seven runners. If the Royal Applause colt reproduces his run in the Bunbury Cup when a head behind Little White Lie he will go very close.

Slowly out of the gate that day he was still last after 2f out. He flew home however and just failed to get up off a mark of 108. Off a 3lbs lower mark on Saturday his chance is obvious and he is the selection.

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Wetherbys Supersprint 3.25 Newbury

July 20th, 2008 | No Comments »

The Wetherbys Supersprint at Newbury on Saturday looks a very difficult race to crack.

The race is confined to horses that were sold as yearlings at a sale administered at Tattersalls for 48,000 guineas or less. Allowances for each 3,000 guineas paid under 48,000 guineas is 1lb.

This clearly gives the more cheaply purchased animals the chance of winning a large pot.

Favourites have won two of the last 10 runnings and winners have been fairly prominent in the betting with only one not coming from the first five in the market.

Horses drawn high have had the best of it over the past 10 years but it is worth noting that two have won from stall 1 in the past four years.

The most successful trainers over the past decade are Richard Hannon with three winners and four placed from a total entry of 36 and Tim Easterby with two winners and two placed from nine runners. Hannon is again mob handed with eight entries and the best looks to be Penny´s Gift.

Her form at Royal Ascot when second to Cuis Ghaire in the Albany Stakes looks pretty classy in the context of this race. Having been purchased for only 10,000 guineas she has only 8st to carry and must have a very good chance.

If the going came up soft another to consider would be the Kevin Ryan-trained Senor Mirasol. He kept on well on easy ground over 5f at Catterick to win in a good time and will be well suited by the step up to 6f.

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toteswinger Summer Plate Handicap Chase - Market Rasen Saturday

July 20th, 2008 | No Comments »

This is a very competitive handicap chase over 2m 6.5f and with good ground forecast should be run at a lively pace.The four most successful trainers with runners in the race are Peter Bowen (3 wins, 3 placed from 14 entries in the last 10 years), Paul Nicholls (1 win, 2 placed from 10 entries), David Pipe (1 placed from 4 entries) and Philip Hobbs (2 placed from 7 entries).

Yes Sir probably represents Peter Bowen´s best chance. He has had a couple of runs on the flat at Pontefract and Chepstow which should have blown away any cobwebs. Having won this race off a mark 130 in 2006 he is now only 4lbs higher and should go well.

The Hobbs-trained Loita Hills is worth considering if the ground is good or faster. A course winner over 2m 4f he looked very progressive at Perth last time when accounting for Newbay Bob and Spirit Calling. He ran on very strongly at Perth so will be very suited by the extra 2.5f here.

Another that must be mentioned is the Charlie Pogson-trained Seymour Weld. Having only his fifth race over fences he annihilated the opposition over the course coming home 25l clear of that good yardstick Zilcash.

His jumping appeared to have improved tremendously and if this former plater is allowed his way up front he will take some pegging back. Seymour Weld is the selection.

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July Cup Newmarket Friday and Irish Oaks Sunday

July 8th, 2008 | No Comments »

Many of the horses that met in the Golden Jubilee at Royal Ascot meet again here in the July Cup.

The question is will 3-y-o Kingsgate Native repeat his victory or will something reverse that fine win?

At Ascot the well-drawn son of Mujadil beat War Artist and Sir Gerry - both of whom were also favourably drawn and should beat them again. Marchand D´Or, however, may well improve on his Ascot 6th.

Much has been written about the draw at Ascot and it is indisputable that a low draw that day was vital. The French horse, particularly if it is soft, will pose a much more potent threat on Friday. He is a two-time winner of the Group 1 Prix Maurice de Gheest over 6.5f at Deuville. Last year in the July Cup he was beaten by over two lengths despite a far from trouble-free passage.

At Chantilly in June, giving 9lbs, he had Sir Gerry three lengths and a neck back in 3rd, despite missing the break and being slightly hampered.

On that form his chance on Friday is obvious and Marchand D´Or is the selection.

At the Curragh on Sunday the Dermot Weld-trained Mad About You has a great chance in the Irish Oaks.

The Moyglare-bred filly ran a fine race when a running on second to the high class 4-y-o Promising Lead in the Pretty Polly Stakes over 1m 2f. The step up to 1m 4f should bring further improvement and give Weld another Irish classic.

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John Smiths Cup York Saturday

July 8th, 2008 | No Comments »

Any 20 runner handicap with prize money as generous as this always going to be difficult to solve. However, there are some strong trends which should help.

Firstly, horses older than four can be readily eliminated. Despite being represented by 47 runners in the past 10 years - only one 5-y-o, Vintage Premium, has been successful.

6-y-o’s and older, despite a large representation, have an even worse record with no wins. The 3 and 4-y-o’s are the group to concentrate on.

Experience as might be expected in such a large field is a requirement. The last 10 winners had won 17 handicaps between them prior to their victory here. All the last 10 winners had a rating of 90 or over.

Ezdiyaad, trained by Marcus Tregoning, is one that catches the eye. By the stallion of the moment Galileo, he fits most of the criteria. His last run behind Sugar Ray at Royal Ascot can be ignored where he ran very freely and did not see out the 1m 4f trip.

His two previous wins in handicaps over 1m 2f were pretty convincing. Five winners have come out of the race he won at Newbury on soft ground in April and any rain won’t be a problem.

The Roger Charlton-trained Proponent also ticks many of the boxes. He ran a fine race over 1m 4f at Royal Ascot where he was 3l behind last Saturday’s Old Newton Cup winner Mad Rush. He will be well suited by the step back to 1m 2f but perhaps would not cope with the soft surface as well as the Tregoning colt.

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Market Rasen summer jumping Sunday

July 3rd, 2008 | No Comments »

The popular Lincolnshire course of Market Rasen provides its usual fayre of well supported competitive racing. The going is good-to-firm at the moment but there is rain forecast.

Being a sharp right handed course it favours horses that race up with the pace, a pointer to the chance of the Chris Thornton-trained Sea Venture in the 2.10pm.

Having been disappointing he ran a most promising race over course and distance when second to the most useful Akaram two weeks ago. A reproduction of that form would see him go very close off his current mark.

If the Tim Vaughan-trained City Affair turns up for the novice chase at 3.40pm he would be of considerable interest. He has been a decent hurdler performing well over distances up to 2m 4f. Indeed, the 2m 4f of this race may turn out to be his optimum trip over fences. With four outings over the larger obstacles his experience will definitely count in his favour and he is the selection.

In a very open looking handicap chase at 4.10pm two that catch the eye are Jonjo O´Neill-trained Inaro and the Sue Smith-trained course and distance winner Pams Oak. Jonjo has a great record in this race having won it last year with Square Mile for the second time.

Inaro is the selection.

In the concluding National Hunt flat race Sisella, trained by Gerald Swinbank, who has such a great record in these races, is worth an interest particularly if the market speaks in his favour.

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Eclipse Stakes Sandown and Old Newton Cup Haydock

July 3rd, 2008 | No Comments »

Phoenix Tower by Chester House out of the Zafonic mare Bionic can prove that 1m 2f is his best distance and win Henry Cecil his fourth Eclipse Stakes.

Very lightly raced for a 4-y-o he has had only six runs and his form this year has been most progressive. He had Pipdreamer a head and a neck behind over 1m 1f at Newmarket in April and then ran a superb race to be second 3/4l behind Creachador in the Group1 Lockinge Stakes at Newbury.

He took a very strong hold and could well have been closer if he’d settled better. He ran a very strong race when second to Duke Of Marmalade at Royal Ascot getting going late and staying on well to snatch second place from Pipedreamer on the line.

With rain forecast for the weekend there should be some easing of the ground which may well suit him.

At Haydock Luca Cumani appears to hold a strong hand with Mad Rush and Ladys Best in the Old Newton Cup - a race he has won for the last two years.

Mad Rush - raised another 5lbs for coming 2nd at Royal Ascot - his fourth 2nd in a row may be in the grip of the handicapper. With easy ground forecast the Andrew Balding trained Buccellati is the each-way selection. He stayed on strongly over 1m 4f on easy ground off a mark of 96 to win at Ascot in October.

Returning to 1m 4f for the first time this year with conditions to suit he looks to have a great chance off a mark of 102.

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Northumberland Plate blog

June 27th, 2008 | No Comments »

The Northumberland Plate, also known as the Pitmen’s Derby, looks a wide open race this weekend.

Ante-post favourite Bukit Tinggi probably didn’t quite get home over the 2m 4f at Royal Ascot but ran an excellent race in fourth - beaten about a neck.

He will be better suited by the 2m here but had a very hard race last time. The winner that day, the David Pipe-trained Mamlook is the most likely the one to take out of the race.

He would not be inconvenienced by any rain and it is worth noting that five of the last 11 winners of this race were successful at Royal Ascot.

The David Arbuthnot-trained Desert Sea is definitely of interest. Having his first run for eight months he won very easily over 1m 6f at Sandown two weeks ago. He will be very well suited by the return to 2m.

Carrying a 5lb penalty for his win at Sandown the horse still looks well handicapped. When a close second at Sandown in 2007 he handled softish ground very well.

The John Dunlop-trained Double Banded comfortably beat Tilt over 1m 6f at Nottingham in April. Behind the same horse in the Chester Cup he did not appear comfortable on the tight turning course.

The more galloping nature of Newcastle will suit well. He has won over 2m at Newmarket and is another who would cope with any softening of the ground.

Desert Sea looked a stayer of immense promise at Sandown and must be the selection.

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